Large Language Model (LLM) powered agents have emerged as effective planners for Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) systems. While most existing AutoML approaches focus on automating feature engineering and model architecture search, recent studies in time series forecasting suggest that lightweight models can often achieve state-of-the-art performance. This observation led us to explore improving data quality, rather than model architecture, as a potentially fruitful direction for AutoML on time series data. We propose DCATS, a Data-Centric Agent for Time Series. DCATS leverages metadata accompanying time series to clean data while optimizing forecasting performance. We evaluated DCATS using four time series forecasting models on a large-scale traffic volume forecasting dataset. Results demonstrate that DCATS achieves an average 6% error reduction across all tested models and time horizons, highlighting the potential of data-centric approaches in AutoML for time series forecasting.

As a prominent data modality task, time series forecasting plays a pivotal role in diverse applications. With the remarkable advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs), the adoption of LLMs as the foundational architecture for time series modeling has gained significant attention. Although existing models achieve some success, they rarely both model time and frequency characteristics in a pretraining-finetuning paradigm leading to suboptimal performance in predictions of complex time series, which requires both modeling periodicity and prior pattern knowledge of signals. We propose MoFE-Time, an innovative time series forecasting model that integrates time and frequency domain features within a Mixture of Experts (MoE) network. Moreover, we use the pretraining-finetuning paradigm as our training framework to effectively transfer prior pattern knowledge across pretraining and finetuning datasets with different periodicity distributions. Our method introduces both frequency and time cells as experts after attention modules and leverages the MoE routing mechanism to construct multidimensional sparse representations of input signals. In experiments on six public benchmarks, MoFE-Time has achieved new state-of-the-art performance, reducing MSE and MAE by 6.95% and 6.02% compared to the representative methods Time-MoE. Beyond the existing evaluation benchmarks, we have developed a proprietary dataset, NEV-sales, derived from real-world business scenarios. Our method achieves outstanding results on this dataset, underscoring the effectiveness of the MoFE-Time model in practical commercial applications.

Recent studies have shown that by introducing prior knowledge, multi-scale analysis of complex and non-stationary time series in real environments can achieve good results in the field of long-term forecasting. However, affected by channel-independent methods, models based on multi-scale analysis may produce suboptimal prediction results due to the autocorrelation between time series labels, which in turn affects the generalization ability of the model. To address this challenge, we are inspired by the idea of sharpness-aware minimization and the recently proposed FreDF method and design a deep learning model TimeCF for long-term time series forecasting based on the TimeMixer, combined with our designed adaptive convolution information aggregation module and Sharpness-Aware Minimization Frequency Domain Loss (SAMFre). Specifically, TimeCF first decomposes the original time series into sequences of different scales. Next, the same-sized convolution modules are used to adaptively aggregate information of different scales on sequences of different scales. Then, decomposing each sequence into season and trend parts and the two parts are mixed at different scales through bottom-up and top-down methods respectively. Finally, different scales are aggregated through a Feed-Forward Network. What's more, extensive experimental results on different real-world datasets show that our proposed TimeCF has excellent performance in the field of long-term forecasting.

Time series forecasting plays a critical role in various real-world applications, including energy consumption prediction, disease transmission monitoring, and weather forecasting. Although substantial progress has been made in time series forecasting, most existing methods rely on a centralized training paradigm, where large amounts of data are collected from distributed devices (e.g., sensors, wearables) to a central cloud server. However, this paradigm has overloaded communication networks and raised privacy concerns. Federated learning, a popular privacy-preserving technique, enables collaborative model training across distributed data sources. However, directly applying federated learning to time series forecasting often yields suboptimal results, as time series data generated by different devices are inherently heterogeneous. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, Fed-TREND, to address data heterogeneity by generating informative synthetic data as auxiliary knowledge carriers. Specifically, Fed-TREND generates two types of synthetic data. The first type of synthetic data captures the representative distribution information from clients' uploaded model updates and enhances clients' local training consensus. The second kind of synthetic data extracts long-term influence insights from global model update trajectories and is used to refine the global model after aggregation. Fed-TREND is compatible with most time series forecasting models and can be seamlessly integrated into existing federated learning frameworks to improve prediction performance. Extensive experiments on eight datasets, using several federated learning baselines and four popular time series forecasting models, demonstrate the effectiveness and generalizability of Fed-TREND.

Diffusion models have risen to prominence in time series forecasting, showcasing their robust capability to model complex data distributions. However, their effectiveness in deterministic predictions is often constrained by instability arising from their inherent stochasticity. In this paper, we revisit time series diffusion models and present a comprehensive framework that encompasses most existing diffusion-based methods. Building on this theoretical foundation, we propose a novel diffusion-based time series forecasting model, the Series-to-Series Diffusion Bridge Model ($\mathrm{S^2DBM}$), which leverages the Brownian Bridge process to reduce randomness in reverse estimations and improves accuracy by incorporating informative priors and conditions derived from historical time series data. Experimental results demonstrate that $\mathrm{S^2DBM}$ delivers superior performance in point-to-point forecasting and competes effectively with other diffusion-based models in probabilistic forecasting.

The field of time series forecasting has garnered significant attention in recent years, prompting the development of advanced models like TimeSieve, which demonstrates impressive performance. However, an analysis reveals certain unfaithfulness issues, including high sensitivity to random seeds and minute input noise perturbations. Recognizing these challenges, we embark on a quest to define the concept of \textbf{\underline{F}aithful \underline{T}ime\underline{S}ieve \underline{(FTS)}}, a model that consistently delivers reliable and robust predictions. To address these issues, we propose a novel framework aimed at identifying and rectifying unfaithfulness in TimeSieve. Our framework is designed to enhance the model's stability and resilience, ensuring that its outputs are less susceptible to the aforementioned factors. Experimentation validates the effectiveness of our proposed framework, demonstrating improved faithfulness in the model's behavior. Looking forward, we plan to expand our experimental scope to further validate and optimize our algorithm, ensuring comprehensive faithfulness across a wide range of scenarios. Ultimately, we aspire to make this framework can be applied to enhance the faithfulness of not just TimeSieve but also other state-of-the-art temporal methods, thereby contributing to the reliability and robustness of temporal modeling as a whole.

Time series forecasting is a challenging task due to the existence of complex and dynamic temporal dependencies. This can lead to incorrect predictions by even the best forecasting models. Using more training data is one way to improve the accuracy, but this source is often limited. In contrast, we are building on successful denoising approaches for image generation by advocating for an end-toend forecasting and denoising paradigm. We propose an end-to-end forecast-blur-denoise forecasting framework by encouraging a division of labors between the forecasting and the denoising models. The initial forecasting model is directed to focus on accurately predicting the coarsegrained behavior, while the denoiser model focuses on capturing the fine-grained behavior that is locally blurred by integrating a Gaussian Process model. All three parts are interacting for the best end-to-end performance. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that our proposed approach is able to improve the forecasting accuracy of several state-of-the-art forecasting models as well as several other denoising approaches. The code for reproducing our main result is open-sourced and available online. Time series forecasting is a vital foundational technology in many important domains such as in economics Capistrán et al. (2010), health care Lim (2018), demand forecasting Salinas et al. (2020) and autonomous driving Chang et al. (2019).

Nowadays, the ever-increasing urbanization and industrialization has led to a growing of water demand and a decrease in water supply and resources, thus creating a huge divergence between demand and supply. Therefore, water resources can play an important role in regional socio-economic and environmental development [Setegn, 2015]. The effective distribution of water resources in both civil and industry life indicates the levels of urban sustainability and social inclusiveness. Proper water distribution and forecasting can act as a baseline for achieving optimal resource allocation and mitigating the gap between supply and demand, thus improving operations, planning and management. In Greece, the recent years, the need for accurate water demand forecasting has become particularly important [Bithas and Chrysostomos, 2006]. The systematically extraction of non-renewable ground water, the insertion of chemicals for water purification, the drought caused by climate changes in the region of the Mediterranean and the sudden rise of water demand due to the increase of refugees and migrants has created many environmental issues on the quantity and quality of the water resources as well as previously unseen socio-economic and political problems. Therefore, an accurate forecasting of water consumption can be a decisive factor for proper planning, management and optimization. Water consumption data are seen as time series, since a measurement of water consumption levels is taken periodically (weekly, monthly, quarterly).

Today, Amazon SageMaker Canvas introduces the ability to use the Quick build feature with time series forecasting use cases. This allows you to train models and generate the associated explainability scores in under 20 minutes, at which point you can generate predictions on new, unseen data. Quick build training enables faster experimentation to understand how well the model fits to the data and what columns are driving the prediction, and allows business analysts to run experiments with varied datasets so they can select the best-performing model. Canvas expands access to machine learning (ML) by providing business analysts with a visual point-and-click interface that allows you to generate accurate ML predictions on your own--without requiring any ML experience or having to write a single line of code. In this post, we showcase how to to train a time series forecasting model faster with quick build training in Canvas.

Air contamination in urban areas has risen consistently over the past few years. Due to expanding industrialization and increasing concentration of toxic gases in the climate, the air is getting more poisonous step by step at an alarming rate. Since the arrival of the Coronavirus pandemic, it is getting more critical to lessen air contamination to reduce its impact. The specialists and environmentalists are making a valiant effort to gauge air contamination levels. However, its genuinely unpredictable to mimic subatomic communication in the air, which brings about off base outcomes. There has been an ascent in using machine learning and deep learning models to foresee the results on time series data. This study adopts ARIMA, FBProphet, and deep learning models such as LSTM, 1D CNN, to estimate the concentration of PM2.5 in the environment. Our predicted results convey that all adopted methods give comparative outcomes in terms of average root mean squared error. However, the LSTM outperforms all other models with reference to mean absolute percentage error.